US Dollar recovers as markets expect Fed rate hike in May
- US Dollar gathers strength to start the week following Friday’s decisive rebound.
- Markets expect the Federal Reserve to raise its policy rate again in May.
- EUR/USD needs to hold above 1.0900 to keep buyers interested.
The US Dollar (USD) started the new week on a bullish note after having registered strong gains against its major rivals ahead of the weekend. The latest macroeconomic data releases from the United States (US) and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials help the USD keep its footing.
The US Dollar Index, which tracks the USD performance against a basket of six major currencies, extends its recovery toward 102.00 following a more-than-0.5% increase seen on Friday.
Daily digest market movers: US Dollar benefits from hawkish Fed bets
- The data published by the US Census Bureau revealed on Friday that Retail Sales declined by 1% on a monthly basis in March. On a positive note, March’s reading of -0.4% got revised higher to -0.2%.
- The University of Michigan’s (UoM) Consumer Confidence Index improved modestly to 63.5 in April’s flash estimate from 62 in March.
- The one-year consumer inflation expectation component of the UoM’s survey climbed to 4.6% from 3.6% in March, providing a boost to the USD.
- “Monetary policy will need to remain tight for a substantial period and longer than markets anticipate,” Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Friday. Waller further argued that the recent data show that the Fed hasn’t made much progress on its inflation goal.
- In an interview with Reuters, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic noted that recent developments in the US economy were consistent with one more rate hike.
- According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a more-than-80% probability of a 25 basis points (bps) Fed rate hike in May.
- On Wednesday, the Fed will release the Beige Book. Existing Home Sales and Initial Jobless Claims data will be featured in the US economic docket on Thursday ahead of S&P Global’s Manufacturing and Services PMI surveys on Friday.
- Previewing the Fed’s publication, “since the March 21-22 meeting, the data suggest that activity is slowing, the labor market is softening, and price pressures are easing,” said analysts at BBH. “Notably, supply chains continue to improve. We believe the Beige Book will highlight these trends that support a pause after what is widely expected to be another 25 bp hike whilst leaving the door open for further tightening if needed.”
Technical analysis: US Dollar eyes correction vs. Euro
On the daily chart the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator declined toward 60 early Monday, suggesting that the pair is staging a technical correction. On the downside, 1.0900 (20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) aligns as first technical support ahead of 1.0760 (50-day SMA) and 1.0700 (100-day SMA).
In case EUR/USD manages to stabilize above 1.1000 (psychological level, static level), sellers could be discouraged. In that scenario, 1.1100 (psychological level, static level) could be seen as the bullish target before 1.1160 (static level from April 2022) and 1.1200 (psychological level).
US Dollar F.A.Q.
What is the US Dollar?
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar?
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar?
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar?
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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